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Two liberal blogs and one trusted statistics genius have released their 2010 Senate rankings for April. Actually one is just a list of five interesting races, while the other two are actual rankings (one of which doesn't specify the rational for sorting, so it is what it is.)
New Hampshire (fivethirtyeight: 1, dkos: 3)
The top seat on Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com ranking, third on DailyKos (a list by Arjun Jaikumar), is an open seat in New Hampshire being vacated by Republican Senator Judd Gregg. You all ought to be familiar with Gregg as he was President Obama's pick for Commerce Secretary after New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson withdrew. Ever since accepting and then turning down the President's nomination, Gregg has at times become a rather fierce critic of the President's domestic agenda for someone who had supposedly put aside partisan differences to serve.
As stated above, Gregg is retiring from a state that voted for President Obama and has been trending blue for the last few years. I have no information on whether or not Gregg would be able to win reelection if he did run, but nobody seems to think it's likely enough to mention. Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes appeared to be the most likely Democratic candidates for the seat, though Silver is reporting that Shea-Porter is going to stay put in the House of Representatives. Both Shea-Porter and Hodes are part of the "wave" of new Democrats in the House from the 2006 mid-terms.
Shea-Porter is the first woman to serve in the House of Representatives for New Hampshire and her victory against Republican Jeb Bradley was considered an upset -- a person she was victorious against again last year.
Hodes ran against and was beaten by GOP Representative Charlie Bass in 2004, ran again in 2006 and won, and won reelection in 2008 against Republican Jennifer Horn by 15 points. Hodes has an "unobstructed path to the Democratic nomination", according to Silver, but turned in disappointing fundraising numbers in the first quarter of 2009. Even so, no Republicans appear to have declared their interest in this race (Bass and former GOP Senator John Sununu are speculated, the latter is already polling behind Hodes) which means that every dollar raised by Hodes gives him that much more of a head start.
Based on analysis by Silver and Jaikumar, it would appear that New Hampshire will end up as a Demoratic pick-up, but it's not a lock by any means. Races like this change very quickly once both sides have a field vying for the seat.
Pennsylvania (2, 5)
Arlen Specter has been losing support from the hard-core right over his votes enabling the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (aka the "stimulus" package"), amongst other pieces of legislation. Specter, along with the two Maine Republican Senators, are the last GOP moderates left in the Senate and the party has been less than pleased with their breaking ranks.
Specter reversed his position on the Employee Free Choice Act (from support to opposition) in order to pump local support for his reelection bid in 2010, but Republicans in Pennsylvania seem to be having none of it. Former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey (has run against Specter and lost in the past) has announced his intention to primary Specter and is running way ahead of him in at least one poll. It's likely that Toomey will win the Republican primary, but has virtually no chance of beating even a generic ballot Democrat in the increasingly blue state (10% to win: Silver).
It seems that Specter has more support from Democrats and would probably beat just about any Democrat if he could survive his primary, but that's just not going to happen. Specter only has two realistic choices: run as a Democrat (once a valid prospect that is probably dead once he crossed organized labor by flipping on the EFCA, even though Democrats were inviting him to join them) or run as an Independent.
If Specter runs as an Independent, it's probably far too early to make any educated guesses. We'd have to wait and see who the Democratic nominee is and then see some polling between the three.
Specter's age is also a concern.
If Specter loses to Toomey, chances are very good that Democrats pick up this seat.
Missouri (3, 2)
Republican Senator Kit Bond is retiring, leaving the seat open. Robin Carnahan (daughter of Mel Carnahan, giving name recognition) is the Missouri Secretary of State and a Democrat that announced in February that she'll be running to replace Bond. Carnahan won the Secretary of State office in 2004 by 4.62% (defeating then-Speaker of the Missouri House, GOP Rep. Catherine Hanaway), but ran away with the 2008 election by over 25%.
According to Silver, Carnahan is claiming a small lead in internal polling over two possible Republican opponents, one of which is Republican Representative (and former temporary House Majority Leader after the indictment of Tom DeLay), Roy Blunt. Blunt has name recognition of his own, with is son described as a wildly unpopular former Governor of Missouri, and both his wife and children are claimed to be lobbyists.
Blunt's first quarter fundraising numbers are described by Jaikumar as "pretty lame" -- about half a million dollars to Carnahans $1 million or more. Blunt is considered by GOP activists and and local party officials to be too involved with the current class of Republican failures.
For the time being, this race appears to be considered a toss-up. Republicans obviously need to win this seat more than Democrats since the GOP is the party that is vacating it. A Democratic pickup would represent another vote closer to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, while a Republican win would merely be playing good defense at this point.
The only gain for them would be in stopping the bleeding, but it would not be considered forward progress.
Kentucky (4, 1)
GOP Senator Jim Bunning is highly unpopular in his state and within his own party. Just a few weeks ago, Bunning is said to have floated an anonymous rumor that if his own party didn't get of his back in demanding he retire for the 2010 election (meaning no primary activity), that he'd retire right now, and encourage Kentucky's Democratic governor to appoint a Democrat to replace him for the next year and change. (It is customary for Governors to appoint temporary replacements of the same party as the vacancy out of respect for the will of the voters.)
It appears that Bunning wants to stay in the Senate and Jaikumar believes that he's probably win against any challengers in a primary. It is reported that the strongest GOP candidate has refused to run unless the seat is open.
Kentucky appears to be somewhat similar in a strange way to Pennsylvania. Democrats have a chance to win the seat of Bunning runs for reelection and he wins the Republican primary, but they'll probably get blown out if Bunning retires and the seat is an open race. (If Bunning retires now, however, and a Democrat is appointed to replace him, that person would have nearly a year-and-a-half to build name recognition with voters and do a good enough job to make something out of nothing. But it appears that such a thing is pretty unlikely.)
Bunning is polling behind Kentucky AG Jack Conway and is flailing trying to raise funds, either because he doesn't want to, or because he can't. Bunning's job approval rating was a painful 28% (54% disapprove) in the first week of April and is actually polling behind every single Democratic challenger (4/4).
If I were to call this race based only on polling (this far out it'd be pointless), I'd have to call it for Democratic Rep. Ben Chandler, 47-33.
Nate Silver a primary challenge for Bunning is at least somewhat likely, so don't let the Bunning vs. Dems polling deceive you. If Bunning isn't the Republican nominee, this probably won't be a competitive race.
Connecticut (5, 6)
Although I'd say that Chris Dodd is popular within the national party and with Democrats in Congress, his constituents don't seem terribly happy with his performance. Dodd is polling 16 points behind GOP Rep. Rob Simmons.
(If I may pontificate for a moment, I think that Chris Dodd got a rotten deal over the bonuses fiasco. Dodd is on record having made strong statements in favor of executive pay limits for a long time, and was the person who introduced the ill fated amendment that would have pushed very strong pay limits during the first round of bailouts. Although Dodd withdrew the amendment, it has been widely reported (not by the press, mind you) that it was the Obama administration (Geither and Summers) that asked Dodd to drop the amendment, and he bent to their will.
The administration already admitted that they pressured Dodd (those admissions are public) to drop the amendment and it's a fact that Dodd was the main supporter of that amendment. To blame Chris Dodd for not seeing it through is a knock on him, but it's ridiculous to blame him as if he was the one opposing pay limits. Nothing could be further form the truth.)
Nate Silver believes that Dodd would lose if the election were held today, but rightly notes that Dodd is a very good fund raiser (which is necessary to repair his poor public image) and that the election is still pretty far away. Problems like executive pay limits may be hot today, but they probably won't be on the RADAR come 2010, especially if the economy changes (if it improves at all, that's going to help all Democrats everywhere, but if it sinks worse, it could be enough to take someone like Dodd.)
Although there weren't any primary challengers for Dodd since the last report that I read, there apparently is one today in the form of Roger Pearson, a local unknown. I don't have any idea of Pearson can beat Dodd, and I'm pretty sure that President Obama has already thrown his support behind Dodd which is going to make things pretty hard for an unknown, especially if he can't raise funds. On the other hand, Silver says (and it's not hard to figure this out for yourself), we're talking about Connecticut here;. practically any Democrat that isn't Chris Dodd should be able to hold the seat against any Republican without much fuss.
Dodd would be a terrible loss to Democrats in Congress, but primary challenges are a part of Democracy too, and there's nothing to say that Dodd couldn't or wouldn't be able to run again (and win) in 2016.
In fact, it might be possible for Dodd to reclaim enough of his image by 2014 to primary Joe Lieberman and return that seat to the Democratic caucus.
But it works out this way. If Dodd wins a primary challenge (or goes unchallenged), Republicans might sneak out a pickup here. If Dodd loses his primary or retires (even if just until 2014), Dems hold.
Ohio (6, 4)
Another open GOP seat, this one being vacated by George Voinovich. There are five Republicans retiring from the Senate by the 2010 mid-term election, even when the GOP holds just 41 seats. Just before the 2006 mid-terms, Republicans by contrast held 55 seats.
The short and sweet of it according to Jaikumar is that the two Democrats in the race are strong, but running against an also-strong Republican trade rep, Rob Portman. Portman's "fundraising has been very good, but he has trailed fairly consistently in polling" and doesn't have the name recognition that someone like Jennifer Brunner does. (If that name sounds familiar, she's the Ohio Secretary of state credited with cleaning up Ohio's corrupt elections process under the previous Republican SoS, and has won awards for that initiative.)
According to Wikipedia, of Brunner wins, she'd be the first woman to serve as a U.S. Senator for the state of Ohio. (How sad is it that we're still making notes like this?)
This race appears to be a tossup, but I've yet to see polling either way. This could change in a heartbeat.
Florida (7, 9)
Another GOP vacancy. The leading Democratic candidate has reported good fundraising and there doesn't appear to be a big name Republican in this rate as of yet. If Governor Charlie Crist joins the race, he'll probably face a GOP challenger in the primary as his moderate streak and very public support of some of President Obama's agenda has made hard-core Republicans furious. However, that hatred is not generally shared by Florida's actual voters. If Crist enters and survives the GOP primary, the seat is as good as his.
If not, this is another tossup that needs to be won by Republicans since this was already a Republican seat. It's candy for Democrats in their quest for a filibuster-proof majority, but otherwise it's not terribly important to them. Even a single lost seat could mean disaster for the GOP, and this one is as good a candidate as any for a toss-up to turn blue along with the state itself. They need to play defense on these open seats and win, now more than ever.
North Carolina (8, 7)
Not where I'm from but currently my home state. Elizabeth Dole with very serious support from the GOP establishment lost after serving just a single term to little-known state Senator Kay Hagan. North Carolina has developed a habit of replacing freshmen senators for new blood on a regular basis.
Several rising stars in Democratic circles opted not to challenge Dole in 2008 and are probably regretting that decision, as Hagan beat Dole by a surprisingly large margin that was not predicted by pro-election polling. One of those people is Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, a popular figure. Burr is already polling behind Cooper, even though Cooper hasn't announced his intentions either way.
Burr has done little for North Carolina in the last four years and this state just replaced one Republican Senator with a Democrat, voted for President Obama (by a ridiculously small margin) and elected on Democrat for Governor to replace another one that was term limited.
For such a solidly red state, North Carolina has been electing a lot of Democrats lately.
Silver notes that all prospective Democratic candidates except Cooper are trailing Burr.
I think what this race will boil down to is whether or not the country is perceived to still be actively moving left, or if it has stabilized or is actually correcting back towards the right. A halt in movement or a tiny correction is probably all it would take for Burr to win reelection in a state like this. On the other hand, Cooper's popularity may be all he needs to defeat Burr in a stale climate. If we're still moving left, I think Burr loses by a similar margin as Dole did, even if the polls don't see it coming.
If Cooper announces, I'd call this a very small-margin pickup for Democrats (which could potentially be a 63rd vote.) Otherwise it's a personally disappointing hold for a do-nothing obstructionist.
Nevada (9, 11)
The consensus seems to be that Despite Majority Leader Reid's soft job approval numbers, the GOP is having a hard time finding anyone credible to challenge him. One former Rep. became a lobbyist, while two other local former Congressmen appear to be looking more seriously at challenging Nevada's endangered Republican Governor.
I've said consistently that as a Democrat and a Progressive, I wouldn't mind at all if Reid lost his seat to a Republican since it would mean Democrats having to find a new Majority Leader. Reid has been a consistent and overwhelming disappointment, but it seems as if he's still hanging on to this seat by a thread.
Colorado (10, 8)
Michael Bennet was appointed to replace Ken Salazar and has little name recognition. He won't support the EFCA, a Democratic priority that has been coming for over a decade, and he joined the Bush Dogs which consistently side with Republicans and against their own party. He may be challenged in a primary because progressives are sick of replacing conservative Republicans with conservative Democrats and because Bennet has never actually run for -- much less won -- a public office before, and there's no guarantee that if left alone, he could hold the seat in the first place.
Neither Bennet nor his potential opponents are doing well in polling, according to Jaikumar, but again, as the incumbent, he has a decent amount of time to improve. Right now it's very competitive and very open to change.
Others:
Illinois: Roland Burris couldn't even raise $1,000 in the first quarter and yet has a very slim chance of winning a crowded primary. Practically any Democrat could hold the seat this point, so long as the current list of Republican challengers doesn't change.
New York: Nobody really seems to like Kirsten Gillibrand but she's been raising lots of money to defend a seat she didn't win. Governor David Patterson screwed up that appointment so badly that virtually anyone could beat him if the next election were held today. If AG Andrew Cuomo gets in, that race is over. If Cuomo does get in and scares away most of the Democratic competition, Gillibrand will undoubtedly suffer. Chances of a flip are remote.
California: The only challenger for Barbara Boxer is Carly Fiorina (who hasn't announced but is my bet to run). Fiorina's only real qualification is that she was the CEO and chairwoman of a fortune 500 company, but if she runs on that, she'll have to explain how she nearly ran that fortune 500 company, Hewlett-Packard, into the ground.
Update: Everything up to and including North Carolina was written last night, before Senator Specter announced that he was leaving the Republican party because it had "moved too far to the right". I will update my thoughts on this in the comments.
The text of this article is Copyright © 2009 Paul William Tenny. All rights reserved. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 United States License. Attribution by: full name and original URL. :: Follow me on Twitter.
