The media isn't talking about delegate totals versus how many are left because then they couldn't justify their fun entertainment shows continuing, they'd have to come to an end and go back to reporting actual news for a living.

I'll save them the trouble.

Here's the current delegate count:

Romney:   496 (52.7%)
Santorum: 236 (25.1%)
Gingrich: 141 (15.0%)
Paul:      67 (07.1%)

There are 2,286 total delegates, 940 have already been decided, and you need 1,144 to win. That leaves 1,346 delegates left to be decided.

As you should now instantly realize, Ron Paul is only a couple of contests from being mathematically eliminated. He needs 1,077 (80%) of the remaining 1,346 delegates to win the nomination, and that's simply not going to happen. He's long past out of the running by common sense standards, and he's about to be literally and definitively shoved out by the rules within a few contests.

Newt Gingrich is barely better off. He'll only have won 342 delegates (15%) by the time the convention takes place at this pace, well short of 1,144. He already needs to win 1,003 (74%) of the remaining 1,346 delegates to win the nomination. That's never going to happen.

Santorum needs 908 (67%) of the remaining 1,346 to win. That's slightly more than 2-in-3 the rest of the way after he's only been able to win 1-in-4. At this pace he'll only have 573 by the convention, in total.

Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee – sorry – only needs 648 (48%) more delegates to make it official. At this pace he'll have accumulated 1,204 by the convention.

Despite the fact that Romney would only clear the bar by 60 delegates, it's a race of delegate attrition here. Forget the fantasy talk about a brokered convention. Nobody is going to hand the nomination to someone who could only win 7.1% of the delegates (Paul) and no contests, or 15% (Gingrich) and like two states that won't be competitive in the general election. Nor is anyone going to hand it to Santorum, who will end up more delegates behind Romney than Gingrich and Paul will have won combined.

So, to drive this home: Romney has been winning 52.7% and only needs 48% the rest of the way; Santorum has been winning 25.1% but needs 67%; Gingrich has won 15% and needs 74%; Paul needs 80% after winning just 7.1%.

It's over.

This article is Copyright © 2011 Paul W. Tenny (license). The author can be found on Twitter or contacted via email.